An election to the Dutch Senate was held on 30 May 2023. The 75 members of the Senate were elected by members of the provincial councils and electoral colleges elected two months earlier in provincial and electoral college elections.

The four coalition parties saw their combined seat count decrease from 32 to 24. The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which had come first in the provincial elections, entered the Senate with 16 seats. The Labour Party and GroenLinks, which intend to form a joint parliamentary group, won a combined 14 seats.

Background From 2017, the Netherlands had had coalition governments consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). In the 2019 Senate election, this coalition lost its majority in the Senate, holding 32 seats. Being 6 seats short of a majority made it necessary for the government to seek cooperation with opposition parties such as the Labour Party (PvdA), GroenLinks and JA21 in order to get legislation through the Senate. The coalition parties were long expected to lose more seats in the 2023 Senate election, which would make it more difficult for the government to find majorities for important legislation.

In June 2022, members of the PvdA and GroenLinks voted in favour of the formation of a joint Senate group after the 2023 election. This made the election an important step for the GroenLinks–PvdA alliance.

From 2019, the government had had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill had met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. With BBB expected to become a significant force in the Senate after the 2023 election, the government was expected to look to the left for support. However, in early March 2023, PvdA and GroenLinks, as well as other left-wing parties, also announced their intention to vote against the nitrogen bill in the Senate. The government was also expected to face difficulty finding majorities for its climate legislation and its Dispersal Act concerning the distribution of asylum seekers.

The government was therefore expected to have to make concessions to opposition parties on these pieces of legislation. However, voters of coalition parties were divided over the question whether the government should turn "left" or "right" in search of support for its legislation. A March 2023 poll showed that a majority of D66 voters wanted the government to cooperate with GroenLinks–PvdA, while a majority of VVD and CDA voters would preferred for the government to cooperate with BBB.

Electoral system

The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the provincial councils of the country's twelve provinces, and, following law changes in 2017 and 2022, electoral colleges representing the special municipalities of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba and Dutch nationals living abroad, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens two months earlier in the 2023 provincial and electoral college elections.

The weight of each elector's vote is determined by the population of the province or special municipality which the elector represents, at a ratio of approximately 1 vote per 100 residents. The seats are distributed in one nationwide constituency using party-list proportional representation.

Electors

Party or allianceProvincial councilsElectoral collegesTotal+/−DRFLFRGEGRLINBNHOVUTZEZHBOSASEFarmer–Citizen Movement 1,488,37217101414121011817798————137 NewGroenLinks 699,5312335545747365———59−2Labour Party 632,1124355534733342———51−2Total 1,356,180668101079147106107000110−4People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 869,9544436259846484———67−13Christian Democratic Appeal 516,3123244254244541——145−27Democrats 66 496,1611213234425144———36−5Party for Freedom 446,301232226432224————34−6Party for the Animals 376,3572212222413132———27 +7JA21 343,3131212—22322142———24 NewSocialist Party 330,0862212234211121———24−11Christian Union 283,98622233—113312————23−9Reformed Political Party 196,150—2—3————2252————16 +2Total 497,508242630115564000039−7Forum for Democracy 239,7261211111211122———17−69OPNLFrisian National Party 27,298——4—————————————40Groninger Belang 17,385————3———————————30Lokaal Brabant 45,723——————2—————————2 +1Lokaal Limburg 20,128—————2——————————20Party for Zeeland 8,458——————————2—————20Party for the North 8,331————1———————————1−1Provinciaal Belang Fryslân 6,891——1—————————————1 +1Sterk Lokaal Drenthe 7,4851———————————————10Sterk Lokaal Flevoland 4,518—1——————————————1 NewTotal182,291115042200020000017+2Volt Netherlands 234,9751——21—1212—12———13 New50PLUS 178,492—1—1—112—1—1————8−9Windward Islands People's Movement 496——————————————5—5 +1Democratic Party of Sint Eustatius 582———————————————44−1Bonaire Democratic Party 3,212—————————————3——30Bonaire Patriotic Union 2,275—————————————2——20Bonaire People's Movement 1,451—————————————2——2−2Independent Jaap Kos 892—————————————1——1 NewMovement 21 816—————————————1——1 NewOthers225,411————————————————0−5Total7,791,16343414355434755554749395525955616 +27Weight per vote117109153388139240478537252283100692202747 colspan="2" Total weighted votes5,0314,4696,57921,3405,97711,28026,29029,53511,84413,8673,90038,0605002432035178,970+5,295

Participating parties The following parties were due to participate in the 2023 Senate election:

ListPartyLead candidate2019 result 1Forum for DemocracyJohan Dessing15.87% (12 seats) 2People's Party for Freedom and DemocracyEdith Schippers15.11% (12 seats) 3Christian Democratic AppealTheo Bovens11.41% (9 seats) 4GroenLinksPaul Rosenmöller11.18% (8 seats) 5Democrats 66Paul van Meenen8.75% (7 seats) 6Labour PartyMei Li Vos8.62% (6 seats) 7Party for FreedomMarjolein Faber6.53% (5 seats) 8Socialist PartyTiny Kox5.88% (4 seats) 9Christian UnionTineke Huizinga5.03% (4 seats) 10Party for the AnimalsNiko Koffeman3.78% (3 seats) 1150PLUSMartin van Rooijen3.03% (2 seats) 12Reformed Political PartyPeter Schalk2.60% (2 seats) 13Independent Politics Netherlands Auke van der Goot1.31% (1 seat) 14JA21Annabel Nanninga— 15Farmer–Citizen MovementIlona Lagas— 16Volt Netherlands Gaby Perin-Gopie—

Seat projections The table and graphs below show seat projections for the Senate election. Projections before the provincial and electoral college elections on 15 March are based on opinion polling for the provincial elections. The 15 March projection is based on exit polls of the provincial elections, while the 19 March projection by ANP is based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections.

+ Seat projections for the 2023 Senate electionPolling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeBBBGLPvdAVVDCDAD66PVVPvdDSPJA21FvDCU50+SGPOPNLVoltDenkOthers Ref2023 election N/A16771065433323121200 ANP N/A17871055543322111100 Ipsos N/A15871056443323111200 Ipsos 2,00213861254845322110100 Peil.nl 3,000+12141247843323011100 I&O 8,19613141035754522021200 Peil.nl 3,000+10141257834333011100 Ipsos 5,2919851556945322010100 Peil.nl 3,000+8131356944523011100 Ipsos 1,9618651557944322021110 Peil.nl 3,000+7131246943633021200 Peil.nl 3,000+61311361044723—————6 2019 election N/A—861297534—124221—00

Results As projected, the Farmer–Citizen Movement became the largest party, winning 16 seats (as opposed to the projected 17). Strategic voting of D66 and VVD electors resulted in extra seats for their coalition partners CDA and CU. Moreover, compared to the projections, GroenLinks lost one seat to Volt as GroenLinks elector Debora Fernald voted for Volt.

With the coalition parties winning 24 seats in the Senate, an additional 14 opposition votes are necessary for a 38 vote majority. Support from either BBB (16) or GroenLinks–PvdA (14) suffices.

Party Unweighted vote Weighted vote Seats Votes % Votes % ±pp Total +/− Farmer–Citizen Movement 137 ±0 22.24 36,976 20.66 New 15 1 16 New People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 67 ±0 10.88 22,194 12.40 −2.71 9 1 10 −2 GroenLinks 55 −4 8.93 17,313 9.67 −1.51 7 0 7 −1 Labour Party 68 +17 11.04 15,862 8.86 +0.24 6 1 7 +1 Christian Democratic Appeal 47 +2 7.63 13,136 7.34 −4.07 5 1 6 −3 Democrats 66 37 +1 6.01 11,144 6.23 −2.52 4 1 5 −2 Party for Freedom 34 ±0 5.52 10,922 6.10 −0.43 4 0 4 −1 Party for the Animals 27 ±0 4.38 8,560 4.78 +1.00 3 0 3 0 JA21 24 ±0 3.90 8,289 4.63 New 3 0 3 New Socialist Party 24 ±0 3.90 7,404 4.14 −1.74 3 0 3 −1 Christian Union 23 ±0 3.73 6,595 3.68 −1.35 2 1 3 −1 Forum for Democracy 17 ±0 2.76 4,866 2.72 −13.15 2 0 2 −10 Volt 14 +1 2.27 4,826 2.70 New 2 0 2 New Reformed Political Party 17 +1 2.76 4,436 2.48 −0.12 1 1 2 0 50PLUS 8 ±0 1.30 3,264 1.82 −1.21 1 0 1 −1 Independent Politics Netherlands 17 ±0 2.76 3,183 1.78 +0.47 1 0 1 0 Total 616 +18 100.00 178,970 100.00 — 68 7 75 0 Source: Kiesraad

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